by Chris Hayes|
Story of the Week,
Up w/ Chris Hayes
If you follow politics, you probably noticed that polling of the presidential election has swung quite decidedly in the president's favor over the last few weeks. The Real Clear Politics polling average now has Obama up 4.1 points over Mitt Romney in national polls and Nate Silver's prediction model at his FiveThirtyEight blog put Barack Obama's odds of winning the election above 80% for the first time ever. Swing state polling out just this week seems to confirm the trend.
A new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS poll of swing states of Ohio and Florida, show surprisingly strong leads for Obama. And the Gallup tracking poll, which has showed a near dead heat for almost the entirety of the campaign now shows Obama up 6 points. It's pretty hard to survey the polling data and not come to the conclusion that Barack Obama is beating Mitt Romney, that if the election were held today Barack Obama would win, and that Romney has a relatively steep, though certainly not insurmountable, uphill climb to victory. That is, of course, unless you operate in the alternate epistemic universe of right-wing media.
Bill O'Reilly: That begs the question, are these polls dishonest?
Karl Rove: No we endow them with a false scientific precision they simply don't have.
John Kasich: These polls I don't even pay attention to them...
Dick Morris: Polling is very good at saying how you're gonna vote, its very bad at who's gonna vote, and the models these folks are using are crazy.
Rush Limbaugh: These two polls today are designed to convince everybody this election is over.
We should note that Fox News's own polls have been pretty much in line with everyone else's, but it's not just commentators making the claim that the polls are rigged, the Romney campaign itself is now getting in on the act.
Eric Fehrnstrom: Some of these polls have been called into question because they assume a higher Democratic turnout in 2012 than we experienced in 2008.
For the record that's not true. But that doesn't really matter! Conservatives are spending hundreds, maybe thousands of man-hours (or maybe more appropriately bro-hours) writing long, tortured, pseudo-statistical take downs of every new poll, from a wide variety of outlets.